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Consumers

What is tariff passthrough?

Quick answer

Tariff passthrough is when importers pass the cost of tariffs through to downstream buyers via higher wholesale and retail prices. Studies show that Section 301 and IEEPA tariffs are largely passed through to U.S. consumers, meaning the economic burden falls on end purchasers, not the foreign exporters the tariffs target.

Detailed Answer

Tariff passthrough is the economic mechanism by which customs duties imposed on imported goods flow through the supply chain to end consumers as higher prices.

How passthrough works:

  • Importer pays the tariff at the U.S. border. A 25% Section 301 tariff on $100,000 worth of imported goods means $25,000 in duties paid to CBP.
  • Importer raises wholesale prices to recover the tariff cost, often with an additional margin to account for the increased cost of capital tied up in duty payments.
  • Distributor/retailer marks up the higher wholesale price using their standard margin.
  • Consumer pays the final price which embeds the original tariff cost plus cumulative markups at each stage.

What the research shows:

Multiple academic studies and Federal Reserve analyses have found that Section 301 tariffs are "almost entirely" passed through to U.S. import prices — meaning foreign exporters generally did not absorb the cost by lowering their prices. The economic burden falls overwhelmingly on American importers and, downstream, on American consumers.

Passthrough rates vary by industry:

  • Commodities (metals, chemicals): Near 100% passthrough — margins are too thin to absorb.
  • Consumer electronics: High passthrough (80-95%) — products are largely imported, few domestic alternatives.
  • Apparel and textiles: High passthrough (85-100%) — production is concentrated in tariff-targeted countries.
  • Products with strong domestic competition: Lower passthrough (50-80%) — importers may absorb some cost to remain competitive.

Why passthrough matters for refunds:

When tariffs are refunded to importers through CAPE declarations, the passthrough argument supports distributing a portion of that refund to end consumers — they bore the cost, so they deserve part of the recovery. Tariffi's consumer distribution program facilitates this flow.

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